Good article. I see something else to think about. Using the % of people with antibodies, and info on the number of people vaccinated, and how well the vaccine worked, can you figure out how many people in the US have had covid? From that and the 1 million that are said to ahve died from it (but maybe use Excess deaths instead?), could we get a reliable death risk from covid?
It seems pretty clear that the acute consequences of COVID are mild enough for healthy, fully vaccinated people that for most people it makes sense to go back to life as it was before the pandemic. But I've seen many estimates of long COVID suggesting its prevalence is concerningly high, and very little discussion of this from public health experts or authorities. (Zvi had a post on this in Feb - https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mh3xapTix6fFtd3xM/the-long-long-covid-post - which reached conclusions similar to your own post on the subject. But there have been a couple of posts since then making claims to the contrary, which he hasn't engaged with:
Good article. I see something else to think about. Using the % of people with antibodies, and info on the number of people vaccinated, and how well the vaccine worked, can you figure out how many people in the US have had covid? From that and the 1 million that are said to ahve died from it (but maybe use Excess deaths instead?), could we get a reliable death risk from covid?
Does Paxlovid treat Long COVID?
It seems pretty clear that the acute consequences of COVID are mild enough for healthy, fully vaccinated people that for most people it makes sense to go back to life as it was before the pandemic. But I've seen many estimates of long COVID suggesting its prevalence is concerningly high, and very little discussion of this from public health experts or authorities. (Zvi had a post on this in Feb - https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mh3xapTix6fFtd3xM/the-long-long-covid-post - which reached conclusions similar to your own post on the subject. But there have been a couple of posts since then making claims to the contrary, which he hasn't engaged with:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vSjiTrHkckTPrirhS/hard-evidence-that-mild-covid-cases-frequently-reduce
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/emygKGXMNgnJxq3oM/your-risk-of-developing-long-covid-is-probably-high)